Bull bias or start of upswing? It is Spring after all!

'green shoots'

It is Spring again! After months of gloomy and straighforward bad news – on the financial sector, on the stockmarkets, on housing markets and commercial property markets and on the economy in general – it looks like some positivism is coming back to the play. I’m not saying that bad times are over, as I believe the recession may continue for another 18 months or so. Also, I do not believe that banks are lending at the levels that we have been used to.

What I have noticed over the last few weeks when following the real estate news, is that it looks like investors are returning to the property market. Attracted by high net yields (Savills’, William Newsom: Yields of 6.25% and 7.5% in London are an absolute steal), low interest rates, investors may regain some confidence that now may be a good time to re-enter the real estate market.

It is just a hypotesis. Let’s see about some backing for this. It may as well be that I a suffering from a bull bias, or that the springtime got to me. Well, lets look at some facts…

Some headlines of news items over the past two to three weeks that had a positive rather than a negative angle on investing in real estate:

Ok, quite a list. But I admit, it may look like a meagre result, bearing in mind that there have been maybe hunreds of news items to pick from. So I guess it is more a gut feeling (of which I will keep track in the next couple of weeks: I may be right after all…). Nevertheless, I’m calling the bottom. Let’s see.


  1. Pingback: « On A Peppercorn
  2. Let us know about your experiences in China. If China “holds” and averts a vicious and destructive downcycle, we may be able to do so too. However, as far as I am concerned: “All bets are off”. No one in living history has any experience in a crisis of a global scale like this. And if the brightest minds couldn’t keep it from happening, I surely don’t trust policy makers make things worse by throwing bucketloads of money around.
    I do agree with seeing some green shoots. “The second derivative of sentiment is … slowing.” (i.e. not declining yet).
    Asset allocation suggestions: long real Asian estate in 2012?



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